The CEO Decision System: Faster, Better Calls with the 70% Rule
Indecision is a tax on growth. Every week you delay a call, you lose momentum, confuse your team, and open a lane for competitors. The fix isn’t “be braver” — it’s to install a CEO decision system you can run under pressure: decide faster where it’s safe, slow down where it’s not, and keep learning from every call you make.
This guide gives you three core tools used by top operators:
- the 70% Rule (decide with “enough” info),
- One-Way vs Two-Way Doors (label reversibility), and
- a simple Decision Journal (improve judgment over time).
Use them together and you’ll move quicker without being reckless — the essence of a CEO mindset.
Why CEOs Decide Differently (Speed, Reversibility, Expected Value)
Speed is a competitive advantage. In fast markets, a “perfect” late decision loses to a good decision made early and refined in the field. CEOs bias toward action because time kills options — customer needs shift, windows close, and teams stall when they don’t have direction.
Reversibility reduces risk. Not all decisions deserve the same rigor. If you can undo a choice cheaply (pricing tweak, feature toggle, ad channel), you should decide fast and iterate. If the decision is hard to reverse (acquisition, public rebrand, multi-year contract), that’s when you raise the bar: more diligence, more perspectives, and clearer success criteria.
Expected value beats perfection. Great CEOs think in bets. If upside × probability meaningfully outweighs downside, they move — even at 70% confidence. Then they watch leading signals and adjust. The win is getting feedback sooner than slower rivals.
TL;DR: Go fast on reversible bets; go deep on irreversible ones. Decide at ~70% confidence, then correct quickly if needed.
The 70% Rule Explained (with Examples)
Indecision is a tax on growth. Every week you delay a call, you lose momentum, confuse your team, and open a lane for competitors. The fix isn’t “be braver” — it’s to install a CEO decision system you can run under pressure: decide faster where it’s safe, slow down where it’s not, and keep learning from every call you make.
This guide gives you three core tools used by top operators:
- the 70% Rule (decide with “enough” info),
- One-Way vs Two-Way Doors (label reversibility), and
- a simple Decision Journal (improve judgment over time).
Use them together and you’ll move quicker without being reckless — the essence of a CEO mindset.
One-Way vs Two-Way Doors (How to Label Decisions)
Two-Way Door (reversible): You can undo cheaply (turn off the ad, roll back the price, unship the feature). Bias: decide fast, run a small test, learn.
One-Way Door (hard to reverse): You can’t undo without major pain (acquire a company, shutter a product, sign a multi-year lease). Bias: slow down, expand diligence, stress-test assumptions.
How to label in practice
- Ask: “If this is wrong, how hard/costly is it to revert?”
- If easy → treat as Two-Way: delegate or decide this week.
- If hard → treat as One-Way: raise the decision bar (more data, devil’s advocate, outside view, board input).
Team playbook (steal this)
- Managers: If it’s Two-Way, do not escalate — decide and report result.
- Execs: Gatekeep One-Way calls; insist on pre-mortem and milestone plan.
- Everyone: Default to experiments over debates.
Mental model: Decide reversible choices at the edge; escalate irreversible choices to the center.
Your Decision Journal (Free Template + How to Use It)
You can’t improve what you don’t capture. A Decision Journal is a lightweight log you fill before a meaningful decision. It freezes your reasoning, confidence, and assumptions in time. When outcomes arrive, you review and upgrade your judgment.
Why it works
- Kills hindsight bias (“I knew it!”) — your entry shows what you really thought.
- Exposes patterns (e.g., chronic optimism on timelines, ignoring risks).
- Turns decisions into a learning loop, not one-off events.
How to use (3 steps)
- Write the entry (5–7 minutes).
- Make the decision (with 70% rule + door label).
- Review on a set date; log outcome and lesson.
Make Better Calls, Faster – with a Repeatable Template
Use this journal before important calls. Capture context, label reversibility, set success criteria, and review to upgrade judgment.
Decision & Context
Options Considered
Assumptions & Evidence
Reversibility
Expected Outcome (Range)
Decision & Why
Confidence Level
Pre-Mortem (Top 3 Risks)
Review Date
Sample Decision Journal Entries (Real-World Examples)
- Hiring – Head of Marketing (Two-Wayish)
Decision: Hire now with 90-day scorecard. Options: wait 6 mos; agency. Rejected both (timing, ownership). Assumption: demand is there; we lack consistent outbound. Expected: +25–30% MQL in 2 quarters. Confidence: 70%. Review: 45/90 days. - Pricing – +10% on Pro Plan (Two-Way)
Decision: A/B 25% cohort for 1 billing cycle. Watch churn > +2 pts as kill switch. Assumption: value ↑, competitors priced higher. Expected: +8–10% ARR net. Confidence: 75%. Review: 30 days. - Product – New AI Module (One-Way Lean)
Decision: Fund Phase 1 (3 sprints) with go/no-go gates; partner evaluated but rejected (IP/speed). Risks: under-adoption, model quality, timeline slip. Expected: +15% retention in 12 mos. Confidence: 60%. Review: end of each sprint.
Avoiding Biases (3 Quick Tactics)
1) Pre-Mortem (assume it failed).
Gather the team: “It’s a year later and this flopped — why?” List top 3 failure modes and add mitigations before launch. This punctures overconfidence and forces concrete risk planning.
2) Devil’s Advocate (designated contrarian).
Assign one person to argue the strongest case against the decision. Their job is to surface blind spots, not “win.” Document their points in the journal.
3) Outside View (reference class).
Ask: “What typically happens in similar cases?” Use base rates (e.g., % of launches that slip; median CAC in our niche) to temper rosy assumptions.
Decide in 120 Seconds (Printable Flowchart)
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FAQ's
What is the 70% rule in decision-making?
Decide when you’re roughly 70% confident; don’t wait for perfect information. You gain speed and learn by doing. Build reversibility (pilots/toggles) and set a review date to adjust.
How do I tell if a decision is reversible?
Ask, “If wrong, how hard/costly to undo?” Easy → Two-Way (decide fast). Hard → One-Way (slow down, expand diligence). Most day-to-day choices are Two-Way.
Isn’t moving fast risky?
It’s riskier to be slow. Use small experiments, caps, and kill-switches to contain downside. Keep One-Way bets rare and well-vetted.
How do I beat analysis paralysis?
Time-box research, apply the 70% rule, and split big decisions into smaller tests. Default to experiment over debate and set a clear decision deadline.
Further Reading & Tools
CEO mindset decision system (pillar) → https://www.leadersadapt.com/blog/ceo-mindset-visionary-guide/
I’m an executive advisor and keynote speaker—but before all that, I was a tech CEO who learned leadership the hard way. For 16+ years I built companies from scratch, scaled teams across three continents, and navigated the collision of startup chaos and enterprise expectations.